🧪 SciSim.co.uk

Population Models

How to use this simulation

The graph shows the next 50 years of a population that grows logistically and may be harvested at a constant rate. dN/dt = rN(1 − N/K) − H. With harvest at zero the curve is the familiar S-shape and levels off at the carrying capacity K. The greatest natural increase is rK/4, at half the carrying capacity.

  1. Set harvest to zero and start with a small population. Growth is slow at first, fastest around K/2, then levels off at K.
  2. Start above K, still with no harvest. The population should fall back toward K, because the term (1 − N/K) is negative when N is above K.
  3. Raise the harvest rate in small steps. The stable population falls. Compare your harvest with the “maximum natural growth” readout, rK/4.
  4. Set a harvest larger than that maximum and start from a small population. The model heads downward. If the constant harvest stays above what the remaining population can replace, the outlook becomes a collapse.

Key ideas

Why exponential growth is not enough

Unlimited growth, dN/dt = rN, makes the population keep multiplying. Food, space and nesting sites are finite, so that model is only a short-term description. Logistic growth adds a carrying capacity and makes the per-capita growth rate fall as N approaches K.

The logistic shape

When N is much smaller than K, growth is close to exponential. The increase dN/dt is greatest at N = K/2. At N = K the natural increase is zero. Above K the population declines toward K. The dashed line on the graph is that carrying capacity.

Harvesting and a sustainable yield

A constant harvest H is subtracted every year. The largest harvest that can be replaced indefinitely is the maximum of rN(1 − N/K), which is rK/4, taken when the population is held near K/2. Harvesting above that maximum sustainable yield pulls the population down.

Why a high harvest can collapse a small population

Natural increase is only about rN when N is small. A fixed harvest that a large population could spare can be larger than rN for a small population, so N keeps falling. The advanced outlook label reports a collapse when the 50-year result is essentially zero.

Where this sits in the course

GCSE and IGCSE ecology uses population curves, limiting factors and the idea of a carrying capacity. A level and IB, including the logistic equation and sustainable yield, are the quantitative version. The harvest term is the simplest constant-quota model.

What the model leaves out

The equations are continuous averages. They omit age structure, seasons, migration, predators and random bad years. A real population fluctuates around curves like these rather than following them exactly.